STATE STATISTICS SERVICE: REAL GDP GROWTH IN Q3 MADE UP 4.2%

In Q3 2019 real GDP grew by 4.2% as compared to the same period of 2018. Such data were released by the State Statistics Service of Ukraine.

A growing trend was supported by both external and internal demand (consumer and investment). Higher consumer demand was driven by higher wages, stable consumer crediting and improved consumer sentiment.

With regards to production, high growth rates in agriculture have been maintained due to higher yields of certain crops, in particular, sunflower and maize.

Overall, according to the estimates of the Ministry of Economic Development, Trade and Agriculture (basing on data from the State Statistics Service), GDP growth over the 9 months of 2019 made up 3.9%.

Among the main driving factors are as follows:

  • increased purchasing power of the population in conditions of increase of the level of wages against the background of competition for skilled labor by foreign employers (during 9 months of 2019 real wages increased by 9.5%);
  • significant increase in consumer sentiment (according to Info Sapiens in September of 2019 this showing increased up to 97.5 as compared to 62.6 in September of 2018);
  • active consumer lending (according to NBU’s updated information, the volume of loans in national currency to households (except for individual entrepreneurs) increased by 19.3% during 9 months of 2019);
  • preservation of investment activity, which stimulated mainly the development of construction, in particular, of industrial and transport infrastructure facilities (in Q3 2019 – by 19.6% against Q3 2018), including against the background of increase in capital budget expenditures (by 12.3% in Q3 2019 compared to Q3 2018);
  • maintaining the high dynamics of agricultural development in view of heavy crop of cereals and oilseeds and increasing the volume of poultry production in conditions of steadily increasing external demand, as well as improving the situation in hog farming;
  • favorable price situation on selected world commodity markets for domestic exports (according to the World Bank, in Q3 2019 world prices for iron ore increased by 53.1%, maize – by 7.7%;
  • high level of business activity (according to the State Statistics Service, the economic sentiment indicator in Q3 2019 amounted to 9.2% against 5.6% over the corresponding period in 2018 and 6.6% in Q2 2019).

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